Real Probability Rating – Paris Sports – Widget

Real Cost Probability Calculator

Understand what a rating really means

Too many betters bet without really knowing what a odds is hiding. This calculator allows you to
instantly translate a score as a percentage chance of success. It is an indispensable tool for
determine whether a rating is « value » or overestimated.

You can also integrate the commission of the bookmaker (often forgotten), which distorts the true probability.

A simple, fast and educational tool to improve your decisions.

How it works:

Enter the proposed rating (in decimal format).
Choose if you want to include a bookmaker margin (ex: 10%).
Cliquez sur « Calculer la probabilité ».
You will see the actual percentage chance that the event will happen.
Use this percentage to compare to your own estimate (value bet?).

Real Probability Calculator

Counts (decimal format)

Include bookmaker margin (10%)

Real likelihood

0.00%

Enter ratings to get a realistic estimate.

What's a rating in reality?

A rating is simply a way of representing a probability. For example, a rating of 2 means that a bookmaker believes that the event has 50% chance to occur (1 divided by the rating: 1/2 = 50).

Formula used:

Probability (%) = (1 / rating) × 100

⚠️ Les bookmakers incluent une marge pour assurer leur rentabilité. Cela réduit la « vraie » probabilité pour le joueur.

The bookmaker's margin, why include it?

If you really want to know the real chance of success, you need to take into account the security margin that the bookmaker applies. According to several experts it varies between 5 and 15%.

This distorts the "pure" rating and reduces the real probability.

A score of 2.00 is no longer 50%, but about 45% with a 10% margin
This helps you detect if a rating is unfairly high or low

Use this tool with and without margin allows you to have a more realistic view of your "edge".